Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
